Friday, 25 July 2008

on Labour losing the Glasgow East by-election

Their third safest Westminster seat. With Parliament being in recess the impact will not be as big as it could be. Gordon Brown can look forward to a mildly calm summer with no by-elections up and coming. Reflection, and perhaps a decision to hold a general election just after conference season this autumn. Conference should be interesting, with many possible contenders lining up to make big speeches just in case anything happens and Brown gets pushed onto a sword.

As Nicola Sturgeon MSP pointed out, this is the first by-election in history between two competing governments.

Crewe and Nantwich was a 17% swing, to win in Glasgow East the SNP needed a 22% swing, they achieved a 22.54% swing

Results:

Labour - 10,912

SNP - 11,277

Is it now time for Gordon Brown to call a general election, lose, have the Tories get tainted with the economic downturn and then David Milliband can walk into Downing Street in 2013? The more they hold on, the more silly they look. The more they hold on the more likely an Independence referendum will come about? Labour MP's constantly look depressed.

Congratulations to John Mason the new MP for Glasgow East.

2 comments:

Jock Coats 25 July 2008 at 08:27  

Not sure abut your assessment here...is it not just as likely that with Westminster off and silly season in full swing may make the impact all the greater. There's no "business as usual" to get on with releasing statements and policieis and scoring small victories in the Commons, so opposition parties may be able to make even more hay with this?

Also, I don't know about a general election. If opposition parties can make it stick right through summer it will be bad news for Gordon - with the victor in Glasgow East getting even more publicity when he finally takes up his seat in October or whenever - three months of open season on Gordon! Also, there's trouble on the left - such as the Guardian article by Tony Woodley today.

If I were him I'd be worried about an old fashioned (not so old fashioned in Canada and New Zealand say) wipe out? Judging by last autumn, Brown does not seem to play the tactical game very well.

thechristophe 25 July 2008 at 09:40  

Perhaps, but I personally don't think it would have had the impact it could have had if Parliament was still in session. Taunts at PMQ's and other MQ's and the usual media frenzy. Gordon Brown doesn't have to say anything about this by-election result if he doesn't want to. I think it might fizzle out, depends on if any major news stories break outside of politics.

By the time Edward Timpson had been sworn in, everyone had lost interest and that was only a short break, so its unlikely this will stick, not for a 3 month summer recess at least.

We shall see.

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