Monday, 1 June 2009

on 45% satisfaction, the Lib Dems still in 2nd place and electoral reform

Following on from the sensational Sunday Telegraph poll yesterday, today's Ipsos MORI poll has Labour down on 18% level with the Lib Dems who are also on 18%. This backs up the poll yesterday which had Labour in third place 3 points behind the Lib Dems. Perhaps more importantly as stated over on politicalbetting.com Ipsos MORI's results focus on those who are 100% certain to vote and disregards those might say they would vote one way (but then don't show up to vote).

In addition Ipsos has good news for Nick Clegg:

Nick Clegg is the only one of the three leaders to see improved satisfaction ratings this month. Nearing half (45%) are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats, and 23% are dissatisfied. This represents a real improvement for the Liberal Democrat leader, as last month 39% were satisfied and 25% dissatisfied with Clegg.

Over time people are getting used to his name and Nick Clegg has done a lot in the last few weeks to get the message out there, usually by implementing and pulling off high profile campaigns (Gurkha vote, speaker has to go, and by the end of this week sack Darling).

What is perhaps most striking is how these polls translate to seats. Over on Mark Reckons we have the rudimentary results based on the UK Polling Report Calculator. What the calculator shows is that even though Labour was on 3 points less than the Lib Dems on Sunday, as a result of the bias in our voting system, the final seat results in a General election would have Labour on around 178 and the Lib Dems on 74. Even more shocking is the level of seats the Tories would pick up, with 40% of the vote they would secure 369 seats, some 100 seats more than their level of support should achieve.

Surely this is even more reason why we need reform of the electoral system in this country, my views on why we need a change are highlighted in an earlier blog post on electoral reform, in which I call for AV+ to be the solution. Revolutions in Britain do not happen overnight and when they do history shows us, a reversion to pre-revolution ideals may occur.

It is now widely expected that Labour will do badly this Thursday, the key issue is how badly? I've been taught my lesson on pre-judging elections so I won't this time around, but I hope they do badly enough for a real reformer to take over the sinking ship and put electoral reform to the country at the next General election.

Will they do worse than the Greens?

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