Thursday, 25 August 2011

Is the UKPollingReport Polling Average being skewed by @YouGov?

I like polls, without going into too much detail they are an interesting snapshot of the fortunes of political parties. Each polling company has different ways of conducting their polls and so I usually take a look at the UKPollingReport Polling Average which employs a methodology to amalgamate all the polls together (see here).

This includes, among other things, a decline in weightings of polls which are conducted by the same company:
In terms of creating polling averages this risks skewing an average if one pollster does a lot more polling than their rivals. For that reason, if a single company has more than one poll in the time period, the second is given a weighting of 0.76, the third 0.52, the fourth 0.27 and so on.
I'm not sure that methodology was created with YouGov in mind, who conducts daily polls. When all five polls that make up the Polling Average are from YouGov, the question has to be asked, how can a polling average consisting of one company, be a polling average? Enter the PoliticalBetting poll of polls?

I suspect I wouldn't be complaining about this if the YouGov daily polls showed a Lib Dem lead, I should also mention that UKPollingReport is written by YouGov's Anthony Wells. But still, thoughts?


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